The Hanoitimes - In the May update, AMRO forecast Vietnam’s inflation to pick up to 3.8% this year and 3.7% in 2020.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has kept its GDP growth forecasts for Vietnam at 6.6% for 2019 and 6.7% for 2020, unchanged from its May projections, higher than the 4.9% growth projected for ASEAN+3 economies.
AMRO staff revised baseline forecasts downward, following continued weakness in manufacturing and export outturns. The region’s export value continued to contract in May, with the exception of Vietnam and the Philippines.
Source: AMRO staff projections
Vietnam’s strong performance in the processing and manufacturing sectors helped drive its robust second quarter GDP growth of 6.7% year-on-year. However, the imposition of US tariffs on Vietnam’s steel could exert near-term pressure on its exports, the office said in its July update.
In the May update, AMRO forecast Vietnam’s inflation to pick up to 3.8% this year and 3.7% in 2020.
Despite the weakening economic outlook, foreign portfolio capital flows to regional emerging markets (EMs) spiked up in June, driven mainly by bond inflows. Regional EM currencies traded mostly weaker against the USD, while long-term borrowing costs in regional EMs continued to be supported by easy global monetary conditions, tracking US Treasuries closely.