There was further evidence of material shortages impacting on the sector, leading to higher input costs and delivery delays. The manufacturing sector has been a strong performer within the Vietnamese economy so far this year. Therefore, growth will need to rebound from October’s slowdown over the rest of 2017 to help meet the GDP target of 6.7% growth.
The Vietnamese manufacturing sector experienced a slowdown in growth during October, with weaker rises in output, new orders and employment all recorded. That said, new orders continued to increase solidly amid faster growth of new export business. Meanwhile, there were signs that inflation may have peaked, with both input costs and output prices rising at broadly similar rates to the previous month. The Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance – dipped to 51.6 in October, from 53.3 in September.
This signaled a modest improvement in business conditions that was the least marked in five months. That said, the health of the sector has strengthened continuously since December 2015. Central to the weaker improvement in operating conditions was a much slower rise in manufacturing output. Production increased at a marginal pace that was the weakest in the current 12-month sequence of expansion. Where output rose, panelists linked this to higher new orders.
On the other hand, some respondents mentioned signs of softer demand. New orders continued to rise solidly in October, albeit to a lesser extent than in September. New export order growth accelerated, meanwhile, and was the strongest in six months. With new business increasing at a solid pace and output rising only marginally, manufacturers used inventories to help fulfil orders. As a result, stocks of finished goods decreased for the fourth consecutive month.
Rising new orders resulted in a further accumulation of backlogs of work, the fourth in as many months. This was despite solid job creation during October. Employment has now risen in each of the past 19 months, with the latest increase only slightly weaker than September’s six-month high. After having risen at the fastest pace in over six years in the previous month, input costs increased sharply again in October and at a rate that was little-changed from September. Where inflation was recorded, panelists often mentioned raw material shortages.
Output price inflation was also broadly unchanged from the end of the third quarter as charges rose for the second month running. As well as pushing up prices for inputs, supply shortages also resulted in longer suppliers’ delivery times in October. Flooding linked to storms also contributed to longer lead times as transport routes were affected.
Manufacturers increased their purchasing activity at a solid pace, albeit one that was weaker than in the previous month. Stocks of purchases rose only marginally, with the latest accumulation the weakest in the current 16-month sequence of increasing pre-production inventories. Firms remained optimistic that output will rise over the coming 12 months, linked to predictions of improving market demand and the hitting of company targets. Sentiment was more positive than in September.
