Econ
Vietnam’s GDP growth on track to meet target of 6.78% in 2019
Vietnam still faces the threat of falling into the middle-income trap and being left behind by regional peers.
Despite signs of slowing down, Vietnam’s GDP growth remains on track to reach 6.78% in 2019, which is in line with the target of 6.6 – 6.8% set by the National Assembly (NA), according to Nguyen Chi Dung, minister of Planning and Investment.
In the first four months of 2019, Vietnam’s economy still maintained positive momentum gained from the end of 2018, Dung cited the government’s report at the 34th session of the NA’s Standing Committee held on May 8.
Nevertheless, economic growth has shown signs of slowing down compared to the same period last year, Dung added.
The country’s GDP grew by 6.79% in the first quarter, down 0.14 percentage points against the government’s target. For such growth rate, the GDP growth for 2019 would reach 6.78% as long as the remaining quarters reach the quarterly growth targets.
According to the report, Vietnam’s economy is expected to face major challenges, which mainly are internal issues. Meanwhile, main driving forces for growth have not performed as expected, while monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are limited.
Additionally, the labor market is facing pressure from the Fourth Industrial Revolution with the risk of abundant labor supply with low skills and quality.
Overall, Vietnam still faces the threat of falling into the middle-income trap and being left behind by regional peers.
The World Bank in its latest “Managing Headwinds” report forecast Vietnam’s economic growth is projected to moderate to 6.6% in 2019, driven by tightening, slower private consumption and weaker external demand.
Meanwhile, Alex Mourmouras, division chief at International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in a statement that “a soft landing of growth is expected, to 6.5% in 2019 and over the medium term, reflecting weak external conditions. Inflation is expected to pick up slightly in 2019 on the back of administered price increases but should remain below the authorities’ 4%-target.”
Overview of the meeting. Source: quochoi.vn
|
Nevertheless, economic growth has shown signs of slowing down compared to the same period last year, Dung added.
The country’s GDP grew by 6.79% in the first quarter, down 0.14 percentage points against the government’s target. For such growth rate, the GDP growth for 2019 would reach 6.78% as long as the remaining quarters reach the quarterly growth targets.
Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung at the meeting. Source: quochoi.vn
|
Additionally, the labor market is facing pressure from the Fourth Industrial Revolution with the risk of abundant labor supply with low skills and quality.
Overall, Vietnam still faces the threat of falling into the middle-income trap and being left behind by regional peers.
The World Bank in its latest “Managing Headwinds” report forecast Vietnam’s economic growth is projected to moderate to 6.6% in 2019, driven by tightening, slower private consumption and weaker external demand.
Meanwhile, Alex Mourmouras, division chief at International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in a statement that “a soft landing of growth is expected, to 6.5% in 2019 and over the medium term, reflecting weak external conditions. Inflation is expected to pick up slightly in 2019 on the back of administered price increases but should remain below the authorities’ 4%-target.”
