Econ
ADB keeps Vietnam GDP growth forecast in 2018 unchanged at 6.9%
The bank expects the country’s inflation rate to hit 4% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019, exceeding the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s target of 4%.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth rate for 2018 and 2019 at 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively, according to the bank’s latest report.
Vietnam saw GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2018 reaching 7.0%, improving from 6.4% a year earlier, stated the report.
Growth was propelled by solid performances in agriculture, industry, and services. Agriculture grew by 3.7% in the first three quarters, up from 2.9% last year thanks to robust production growth in fisheries, forestry, and farming. Industry expanded by 9.0%, from 6.9% a year earlier on the strength of a 12.7% rise in manufacturing output. Construction grew by 8.5%.
Driven by a hefty rise in tourist arrivals and robust banking activity, services expanded by 6.9%.
On the demand side, retail and wholesale trade rose by 8.5%, indicating strong domestic consumption. Investment remains moderate at 7.7% as government capital expenditure slowed.
The trade surplus expanded to US$6.4 billion in the first 10 months, with exports outpacing imports on rapidly expanding sales of phones, components, textiles, and agricultural products in abroad markets.
Meanwhile, the bank expects the country’s inflation rate to hit 4% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019, exceeding the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s target of 4%.
ADB’s report maintained growth forcast for developing Asia at 6% for 2018 and 5.8% in 2019, despite challenges brought about by trade conflict. Meanwhile, the Southeast Asia growth prediction remains at 5.1% for 2018, thanks to robust consumption and infrastructure investment. Adjustments for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand lower the 2019 outlook by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%.
The World Bank in its semiannual Taking Stock report released on December 11 expected Vietnam’s economy to grow at nearly 6.8% in 2018, before decelerating to 6.6% in 2019 and 6.5% in 2020 due to weaker external demand and global uncertainties.
Source: ADB.
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Growth was propelled by solid performances in agriculture, industry, and services. Agriculture grew by 3.7% in the first three quarters, up from 2.9% last year thanks to robust production growth in fisheries, forestry, and farming. Industry expanded by 9.0%, from 6.9% a year earlier on the strength of a 12.7% rise in manufacturing output. Construction grew by 8.5%.
Driven by a hefty rise in tourist arrivals and robust banking activity, services expanded by 6.9%.
On the demand side, retail and wholesale trade rose by 8.5%, indicating strong domestic consumption. Investment remains moderate at 7.7% as government capital expenditure slowed.
The trade surplus expanded to US$6.4 billion in the first 10 months, with exports outpacing imports on rapidly expanding sales of phones, components, textiles, and agricultural products in abroad markets.
Meanwhile, the bank expects the country’s inflation rate to hit 4% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019, exceeding the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s target of 4%.
ADB’s report maintained growth forcast for developing Asia at 6% for 2018 and 5.8% in 2019, despite challenges brought about by trade conflict. Meanwhile, the Southeast Asia growth prediction remains at 5.1% for 2018, thanks to robust consumption and infrastructure investment. Adjustments for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand lower the 2019 outlook by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%.
The World Bank in its semiannual Taking Stock report released on December 11 expected Vietnam’s economy to grow at nearly 6.8% in 2018, before decelerating to 6.6% in 2019 and 6.5% in 2020 due to weaker external demand and global uncertainties.
