Vietnam GDP growth in 9-month period estimated at 1.76%

Vietnam’s GDP growth in the first nine months of this year is estimated at 1.51 – 1.76%, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).

Vietnam' GDP growth in the third quarter is expected at an upper limit of 1.69%.

Meanwhile, the country’s economic expansion in the third quarter is expected to be in range of 1.04 – 1.69%.

The MPI also set up two growth scenarios for the fourth quarter, with a baseline scenario at 2.06% and at 2.86% for positive ones.

In 2020, Vietnam targets an economic growth rate of 2% in normal conditions and 2.5% if favorable factors emerge, while uncertainties could lower the country’s GDP growth to 1.69%.

In a government meeting on September 4, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said out of 12 socio-economic development goals in 2020, seven are highly likely to be achieved and potentially exceed their set targets.

The Vietnamese government remains steadfast in ensuring macro-economic stability and focusing on three major growth driving forces, namely investment, export and domestic consumption, added Mr. Dung.

Mr. Dung forecast negative impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic to persist for the whole 2021.

With growing global uncertainties, Vietnam’s major economic partners are predicted to take at least two to four years to return to their pre-Covid-19 levels. However, Vietnam’s GDP growth could rebound to around 6.7% in 2021, for which the government is set to continue to look for a rapid and sustainable economic growth rate, Mr. Dung suggested.

The MPI’s GDP forecast for this year is not vastly different from that of World Bank in July with 2.8%, making Vietnam the fifth fastest-growing economy globally, while HSBC also expected the country to reach growth of 2.9%.

In the first half of 2020, Vietnam’s GDP expanded 1.81% year-on-year, the lowest six-month growth rate in the past 10 years, but is still a spotlight in Asia.