Econ
Vietnam's GDP growth to surpass 7% in 2018: Brokerage
In order to achieve the growth target of 6.7% for 2018, the Vietnamese economy would need to increase by around 6.1% in the fourth quarter.
Ho Chi Minh Securities Corporation (HSC) predicted that Vietnam's GDP growth target of 6.7% in 2018 is feasible and could even go beyond the 7% mark.
Vietnam posted year-on-year GDP growth of 6.98% in the first three quarters of 2018, the best first-nine-month performance since 2011. As a result, in order to achieve the growth target of 6.7% for 2018, the local economy would need to expand by around 6.1% in the fourth quarter, stated HSC in its latest report.
This scenario is achievable, especially when the average growth rate of the fourth quarter in the last five years was 6.87%, HSC added.
HSC assumed that the growth rate of the fourth quarter of 2018 may be in a range of 6.1 - 6.8%, resulting in an overall growth rate of 6.7 - 6.9% for the whole year. The rate may even reach 7 - 7.1% in some cases.
Notably, HSC stated the growth rate of the third quarter remained high despite a more cautious approach of the government with regard to credit growth.
According to the brokerage, the key point was a high growth rate recorded in the second quarter, while a tightening of monetary policy would take a few quarters to have a drag impact on GDP growth.
Meanwhile, efficient lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), the FDI, agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors has contributed significantly to higher economic growth.
Bao Viet Securities Corporation (BVSC) considered positive GDP growth rate in the third quarter was mostly driven by the industrial-construction sector which focuses on manufacturing and processing industry.
In the July-September quarter, this industry was supported by petroleum production (Nghi Son refinery plant came into operation), iron and steel production (Formosa and HPG increased capacity), mobile phone and electronic component production (Samsung launched ít flagship Galazy Note 9), and strong export growth of the textile sector.
In addition, GDP growth was also underpinned by the fact that the agriculture-forestry-fisheries sector is witnessing a steady growth against the past three years. Service sector growth remained stable at 7%.
According to BVSC, solid GDP growth in the third quarter and the first nine months has helped reinforce domestic investors’ confidence in Vietnam's healthy growth rate. Similar to HSC’s prediction, BVSC expected Vietnam’s GDP growth for the entire year 2018 to reach 7%, the second-fastest pace in Asia, after India's only.
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This scenario is achievable, especially when the average growth rate of the fourth quarter in the last five years was 6.87%, HSC added.
HSC assumed that the growth rate of the fourth quarter of 2018 may be in a range of 6.1 - 6.8%, resulting in an overall growth rate of 6.7 - 6.9% for the whole year. The rate may even reach 7 - 7.1% in some cases.
Notably, HSC stated the growth rate of the third quarter remained high despite a more cautious approach of the government with regard to credit growth.
According to the brokerage, the key point was a high growth rate recorded in the second quarter, while a tightening of monetary policy would take a few quarters to have a drag impact on GDP growth.
Meanwhile, efficient lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), the FDI, agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors has contributed significantly to higher economic growth.
Bao Viet Securities Corporation (BVSC) considered positive GDP growth rate in the third quarter was mostly driven by the industrial-construction sector which focuses on manufacturing and processing industry.
In the July-September quarter, this industry was supported by petroleum production (Nghi Son refinery plant came into operation), iron and steel production (Formosa and HPG increased capacity), mobile phone and electronic component production (Samsung launched ít flagship Galazy Note 9), and strong export growth of the textile sector.
In addition, GDP growth was also underpinned by the fact that the agriculture-forestry-fisheries sector is witnessing a steady growth against the past three years. Service sector growth remained stable at 7%.
According to BVSC, solid GDP growth in the third quarter and the first nine months has helped reinforce domestic investors’ confidence in Vietnam's healthy growth rate. Similar to HSC’s prediction, BVSC expected Vietnam’s GDP growth for the entire year 2018 to reach 7%, the second-fastest pace in Asia, after India's only.
