Since the US House of Representatives began drafting articles of impeachment against US President Donald Trump, the president faces a process that could remove him from office. For the fourth time in US history, the House proceeded to convict a sitting president, after Andrew Johnson in 1868, Richard Nixon in 1973/1974 and Bill Clinton in 1998. But the result of the process this time is foreseeable.
| Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Donald Trump |
The aim of the Democrats is to oust Donald Trump from power after losing the White House to him in 2016. Proceeding impeachment is now one possibility for them to reach this aim. The other possibility is the presidential election next November. The grounds for impeaching Donald Trump are now strong enough to prove that he violated the US Constitution. But the Democrats are aware of the fact that they control only the House of Representatives while the Senate is in the hand of the Republicans.
There is zero possibility for them to secure the two-third majority of the Senate necessary to convict the president. However, they continue with the impeachment proceedings because they believe the result, whatever it is, would leave negative consequences for the president and his chance of reelection. That would mean that Democrats and their presidential candidates could reap more or less significant, if not decisive, benefits from the process. They take into account that this impeachment will unite the Republicans and their loyal voters, consolidate their determination to defend Donald Trump and to ensure him his re-election.
The Republicans now have neither reasons nor interests to let Donald Trump be deposed. On the contrary, they have to prevent an impeachment against Donald Trump at any price. The reason is very simple: Donald Trump as US president is the best and only guarantee for the Republicans to keep holding the White House, not to lose their current majority in the Senate and possibly regain the control over the House of Representatives in the congressional election next year US voters might disapprove Donald Trump next November but the Republicans do not dare to let him fall due to this impeachment process.
Donald Trump will not lose this battle with Democrats, but he cannot avoid further risks and uncertainties about his chances of being re-elected as president of the United States in 2020.
