Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to expand 6.82% in 2016, according to the macroeconomic report for quarter IV, the whole year of 2015 and the outlook for 2016 announced by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) on January 28.
According to CIEM Director Nguyen Dinh Cung, the country enters 2016 with numerous upbeat signs such as sustainable economic growth, the speedy recovery of the economy and a new managing system. He said that the economic growth will fine-tune confidence in Vietnam’s investment climate from investors, enterprises and residents. Cung also underscored that economic reforms and an improvement of the economic environment are significant to enterprises.
CIEM expects export growth to stand at 10.4%, trade deficit at US$4.1 billion and consumer price index (CPI) at 4.37%.Noticing the pressure of interest rates, exchange rates and debt payments as well as inflation risks exerted on the country, the report recommends that Vietnam give a push to deeper reforms of the macro-economy and regulation system in a bid to facilitate production and business operation.
It suggests the country prioritise policies on macroeconomic improvement and renewing its economic institutions. Vietnam needs to simplify administrative procedures and reduce costs while improving technology integrated with sustainable productivity, the report said.
In 2016, Vietnam is facing the opportunity of international economic integration, that is deeper thanks to being signed and implemented a free trade agreement (FTA) with Asian Economic Union - Europe, Korea, and AEC was established at the end of 2015.
The completion of FTA negotiations with the EU and TPP is likely to be completed in 2016, will be a critical turning point for reform in Vietnam. Along with the high expectations of investors, businesses and citizens in the new operating apparatus that will soon be established.
Analysts say industrialization and modernization over the past 20 years recorded 9 accomplishments and 10 shortcomings. Notable results were sustainable and corporate development in agriculture and rapid growth in industry, construction, and services. But these achievements could not negate the 10 shortcomings, which included insufficient economic restructuring, slow industrialization and modernization, and sluggish technological advances.
Le Dang Doanh expert added: "Our distribution stitch is too weak, lack of professionalism and lack of connectivity. The quality of human resources is also not good. Therefore, to successfully integrate, it must be reformed."
Besides, the business environment needs to be further improved through the implementation of an effective way of Government Resolution 19, to raise awareness towards building a culture of "fair competition" in enterprises, to reduce the crowding of the public sector for the private sector. Investors, communities, businesses and new residents have confidence, motivation to increase investment, production and business, bringing sustainable growth for the economy in general.
