Exports remain key role in Vietnam's economic growth
The pace of export will depend on the recovery of the global economy and the competitiveness of Vietnam’s export staples.
Export activities would play a key role for the local economy in years to come, said Chief Economist at the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) Pham The Anh at the launch of the annual Vietnam economic report 2021 today [July 29].
|Production at Rang Dong Company. Photo: The Hanoi Times|
“The pace of export growth, however, is largely dependent on the recovery of the global economy and the competitiveness of Vietnam’s export staples.”
Anh also noted the three growth scenarios for Vietnam this year, with the GDP growth of 4.5-5.1% the most likely one, much lower than the 6% target set by the National Assembly and 1-1.5% percentage points lower than VEPR’s previous forecast in the first quarter.
“This scenario is based on the assumption that Vietnam is able to contain the pandemic by the late third quarter, and the quick vaccination roll-out helps the country to achieve herd immunity by the second quarter of 2022,” Anh added.
In a more favorable case when Vietnam could put the pandemic under control in August and the vaccination program is completed by the late first quarter of 2022, the GDP growth could be around 5.4-6.1%.
For the last and worst scenario, the GDP growth could only expand by 3.5-4% as the outbreak persists to the fourth quarter and the vaccination gets delay due to the lack of supplies.
“Overall, the GDP growth in 2021 remains much improved due to the low base last year,” Anh said.
According to the economist, the economic recovery in short term would rely on the vaccination progress, Vietnam’s effectiveness in the Covid-19 fight, and the disbursement of support programs.
In this regard, VEPR Director Nguyen Anh Thu suggested the government focus on fighting the pandemic, accelerating the development of locally-made vaccines, and acquiring vaccines from abroad.
|Following a positive economic performance with a GRDP growth of 5.91% in the first half of 2021, Hanoi targets economic growth of 7.5% for the whole years as the city continues to pursue the twin goal of both containing the pandemic and boosting economic growth.|
- Aligned interests to take Vietnam-Germany relations to new height
- Vietnam welcomes US investments in high potential fields
- German investors choose Vietnam for their supply chain
- Vietnam, US to prioritize cooperation in digitalization
- Foreign investors remain confident in Vietnam: WB
- Vietnam – example in telecom infrastructure development: ITU
- Vietnam to take advantage of digital opportunities for growth: PM
- Vietnam's consumer spending set to grow by 4% in 2021
- Vietnam's circular economy: right path and promising
- Vietnam’s aircraft ready to fly again
Vietnam regains its position as most ideal investment location: foreign expert
Hanoi tourism adapts to new situation
Hanoi painter finds her passion through fabric-based creations
Hanoi exerts efforts to reopen the economy and adapt to a new normalcy
"Plastic-19 Lockdown" Challenge launched
US$30 million climate change adaptation project launched in Vietnam
Vietnam starts Covid-19 vaccine administration for children aged 12-17
Live Fully in Viet Nam campaign to kick-off inbound tourism
Vietnam – example in telecom infrastructure development: ITU