Nov 03, 2021 / 21:40

Hanoi eyes GRDP growth of over 3% in 2021

A key part of the city’s efforts is to address difficulties facing the businesses, helping them return to normal operation as soon as possible.

Following a sharp deceleration of 7.02% in Hanoi’s GRDP growth in the third quarter, the city is determined to put the setbacks behind and aim for the high growth of up to 7.34% in the final quarter, eventually leading to an economic expansion of over 3% in 2021.

 Production at CAG Facade Company in Thach That Industrial Park, Quoc Oai District, Hanoi. Photo: Danh Lam

This was one of the three growth scenarios mapped out by Hanoi’s authorities in an economic recovery plan for flexible and safe adaptation to the pandemic in the remainder of 2021 and subsequent years.

In a baseline case, Hanoi’s GRDP could grow in a range of 5.09-7.37%, which would put the overall growth around 2.35-3%, of which the services sector is set to expand 1.94-2.6%; industry 5.11-5.49%, construction 0.89-1.9%; and agro-forestry-fishery from 2.83-2.95%.

A less optimistic one, however, would see Hanoi’s economy expands by less than 5.09% in the fourth quarter, and below 2.35% for the whole year.

The plan stated that Hanoi continues to face high risks of potential Covid-19 outbreak, mainly due to the high population density and the fact that the vaccination rate is not high enough to build herd immunity.

“The city is pushing for administering the second dose for the locals aged  18 and over,  and the process is set to be completed in November,” it added.

For the remainder of the year, Hanoi is committed to pursuing the twin goal of both containing the pandemic and boosting growth, along with safe reopening the economy in phases and based on safety measures of a level higher than that of the country.

“Enterprises, cooperatives, business households, and workers are at the center of the local government’s services and also the main beneficiary during the recovery process,” stated the plan.

A key part of the city’s efforts would be to address concerns and difficulties facing the businesses so that they could soon return to normal operation as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, Hanoi is expected to promote economic fields of high potential in the post-pandemic period with a focus on innovation, digital transformation for sustainable development.

Hanoi also gives priority to enhancing healthcare capability and frequently updating businesses and the public on anti-Covid-19 measures to avoid disruption to economic activities and ensure public safety.

With tourism staying central in economic recovery, Hanoi is expected to resume cultural, sports, and entertainment activities, while putting in place measures to receive foreign tourists once the borders are reopened.

Hanoi would give the utmost favorable conditions for smooth flows of goods and mobility by closely working with other provinces/cities in this regard.

In addition to drafting safe criteria for soon resumption of operation in industrial parks, economic zones, or craft villages, Hanoi continues to call for further investment in industrial infrastructure development.

The city targets to attract around US$4 billion in FDI per year by improving the business environment and meeting foreign investors' demands.

Hanoi sets up growth scenarios for the 2022-2023 period:

Baseline scenario: Hanoi targets to expand by 7-7.5% in 2022 if the transportation sector is fully recovered in 2021.

By 2023, the city would grow by 7.5-8%, which the catering and hospitality services to recover by late 2023. In case the city could maintain an average growth of 7.5-8% in the 2024-2025 period, the average five-year growth of 2021-2025 would be around 6.5-7%.

Optimistic case: GRDP growth in 2022 to stay over 7.5% and around 8% in 2023. With a growth rate of 8.5% for the 2024-2025 period, Hanoi may reach an average growth of over 7.5% for the 2021-2025 period.

Risky scenario: GRDP growth in 2022 may stand below 7% and less than 7.5% in 2023. In case the growth is below 7.5%  in the 2024-2025 period, the average growth of the 2021-2025 period would be lower than 6.5%.