Vietnam central bank sets 15% credit growth target for 2026

THE HANOI TIMES — The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) expects systemwide credit growth of about 15% this year, down from the 2025 actual expansion of 19.1%.

In a recent statement, the central bank said credit growth guidance may be adjusted in line with real economic conditions to control inflation, maintain macroeconomic stability and support economic growth.

Last year, the SBV initially set a credit growth target of 16%. By year-end, actual growth reached 19.1%, bringing total outstanding credit to VND18,580 trillion (US$731 billion). Credit expanded faster than deposit growth, putting significant pressure on system liquidity at certain times, especially ahead of the Lunar New Year.

At a press briefing in late 2025, Pham Chi Quang, Director General of the Monetary Policy Department at the SBV, said credit growth last year was the highest in many years. He noted that the central bank had repeatedly reported this issue to higher authorities. Vietnam’s credit-to-GDP ratio currently stands at 146%, the highest among lower-middle-income economies.

Analysts at Mirae Asset Vietnam said credit growth this year is expected to slow despite a GDP growth target of over 10%, citing three main factors, including last year’s rapid credit expansion, the gradual phasing out of the credit quota allocation mechanism signaled by recent central bank statements and concerns over inefficient capital use that are driving a more cautious monetary policy focused on improving credit quality rather than broad easing.

“Credit growth is expected to continue at a moderate pace, with a shift in focus from asset investment to production and business activities, in line with sustainable growth objectives,” Mirae Asset analysts said.

This year, the central bank continues to allocate credit growth limits to individual banks based on their 2024 performance scores multiplied by a common adjustment factor. The regulator has urged banks to tightly control credit growth in high-risk sectors and real estate to redirect lending toward production, priority sectors and key drivers of economic growth.

The credit quota mechanism has been in place for more than a decade as a tool for controlling loan quality and supporting broader macroeconomic objectives such as interest rates, money supply and inflation. However, it has also drawn criticism for creating a permit-based system that can limit borrowers’ access to credit once banks reach their assigned quotas.

In August 2025, the prime minister instructed the SBV to develop a roadmap and pilot the removal of mandatory credit growth targets. Under this approach, the central bank would set prudential standards and credit quality criteria for banks to follow while strengthening supervision and post-inspection to prevent systemic risks.