Vietnam coffee exports stay resilient amid oversupply risks

THE HANOI TIMES — Vietnam’s coffee export turnover in 2026 may remain above US$8 billion, even as the global market shifts toward mild oversupply and imposes higher requirements on sustainability and long-term adaptability.

Market analysts say improved crop prospects in Brazil and several other major producers are gradually pushing the global coffee market into slight oversupply.

According to forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture, global coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year could reach 178.8 million bags, while global consumption may total 173.9 million bags.

The outlook also reflects the United States’ decision to cut reciprocal tariffs on Brazilian coffee and the European Union’s extension of the implementation timeline for the EU Deforestation-free Regulation (EUDR).

Vietnam is entering the peak harvest period of the 2025-2026 crop year, with output projected to rise about 10% year-on-year to nearly 1.85 million tons.

The National Institute for Economics and Finance under the Ministry of Finance forecasts that Vietnam’s average coffee export price in 2026 may decline 10%-15% year on year to between $4,800 and $5,200 per ton.

However, the industry’s biggest challenge lies less in short-term price fluctuations than in increasingly strict demands for sustainability, traceability and emissions reduction.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Hoang Trung said the European Union’s classification of Vietnam as a “low-risk” country under the EUDR, with inspections covering just 1% of shipments, provides a significant competitive advantage.

He emphasized that the sector can sustain this advantage only if producers and exporters maintain discipline and fully comply with international standards.

Vietnam’s coffee export turnover surpassed $8.9 billion in 2025, the highest level on record and a figure once viewed as a distant target for the industry.

Compared with 2024, coffee exports in 2025 rose 18.3% in volume and nearly 59% in value, while the average export price reached $5,660 per ton, an increase of almost 40%.

The primary driver of this growth was a sharp rise in global coffee prices. During the 2024-2025 crop year, Vietnam’s average export price climbed to $5,610 per ton, up 52.7% from the previous season.

Thai Nhu Hiep, Chairman of Vinh Hiep Company, said the company’s export turnover in 2025 approached $1 billion.

He said Vinh Hiep has built a relatively complete coffee ecosystem through close linkages among enterprises, farmers and regulators, with a strong focus on quality improvement, traceability and sustainable development.

Rather than pursuing rapid expansion, the company has maintained stable export volumes of 160,000-200,000 tons a year, consistent with supply capacity and long-term market commitments.

Nguyen Tien Dung, Deputy General Director of Simexco Dak Lak, said the company has developed a raw material zone of around 50,000 hectares and works with 45,000 farming households, fully meeting EUDR requirements on geolocation and traceability.

He said sustainable production, emissions reduction and circular economy practices now form the essential foundation for improving the competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee.

Dang Hong Tuan, General Director of the Vietnam National Coffee Corporation, said the corporation closely monitored market movements and proactively sold inventory at favorable prices, enabling it to meet and exceed financial targets.

In 2025, the corporation continued to invest nearly VND113 billion ($4.3 million) in coffee replanting, despite persistent impacts from adverse weather and natural disasters.