The report updated the credit growth of Vietnam consumer credit growth, which gained 60% during 2017 and expected to increase by 29-30% per year within the next three years.
People tend to borrow more
According to VDSC, in short term, the consumer credit in Vietnam has room to expend with the ratio of merely 19% GDP in 2017. The capital flow would create momentum to the economy’s aggregate demand, contribute to reinforce GDP growth in the upcoming year, support the Vietnam’s real estate, stock market.
People tend to borrow more
According to VDSC, in short term, the consumer credit in Vietnam has room to expend with the ratio of merely 19% GDP in 2017. The capital flow would create momentum to the economy’s aggregate demand, contribute to reinforce GDP growth in the upcoming year, support the Vietnam’s real estate, stock market.
However, the financial risks gradually arise when households are more open with borrowing to spend while saving rate quite low against other countries in the region.
In 2016, the saving rate of Vietnam reached merely 29% GDP, quite modest compared with other neighborhood nations.
In terms of consumer behavior trend, VDSC realized that the Vietnamese are over optimistic about their upcoming income so they're willing to take loan for consuming; which raising concern about their payment capacity. In addition, upward consumer spending without economic growth can make harm to the economy’s health in long term.
Lesson from other countries
VDSC states that the rise in household loans and asset price have two-way interaction, via the history lessons of other countries.
As such, the house prices in Canada and US, since 2008 crisis, witnessed remarkable difference. While the house price in US decrease approx. 25% from the peak in mid- 2008, Canada remained the long term upward trend in this.
Another key reason is the difference between credit flows into respective households. Vice versa, when real estate gains in price and owners pledge it as a mortgage asset, it’s a better news for the Vietnam’s credit picture. Therefore, households tend to use individual financial leverage.
VDSC also acknowledges lesson from China when almost all the experts concern of bubble asset.
Story in Vietnam
In the country, office and house prices recover remarkably during the past five years. By the second quarter, 2017, house price index of Ho Chi Minh City hit 93 points, up 5.1% against the bottom in 2014. At while, office price index reached 89 points, up 23.1% against earlier in 2013.
Numerous reasons behind those recovery, however, VDSC listed credit flow as a key one.
As such, the consumer credit growth still open for expand and affect positively to the economy in medium term. However, the potential risks are undeniable while more than 50% of the credit flow into real estate becomes huge motivation of the market recovery, which can lead to the falsification in calculation and statistic announcement of real estate credit.
