VN-Index expected to move sideways this week in consolidation phase

THE HANOI TIMES — Many analysts believe the stock market is in a base-building phase for the next rally, so the VN-Index may trade sideways this week within the 1,630–1,690 range.

Last week, the stock market’s benchmark VN-Index failed to reclaim the 1,700 mark and shifted into a sideways pattern with four consecutive mild declines. The index lost a total of 9 points, closing below 1,660 in its last session.

Large-cap stocks have yet to show consensus or provide new momentum for the market. The current stabilizing role comes mainly from Vingroup (VIC), which gained more than 11%.

Market turnover in many sessions fell short of the VND30 trillion mark (US$1.18 billion), far below the average of nearly VND50 trillion ($1.97 billion) a month ago.

Meanwhile, foreign investors increased selling pressure, with net outflows exceeding VND2.8 trillion ($110 million) in the most recent session.

“Selling pressure last week centered on bank stocks, the market’s key sector, creating strong headwinds. Although daily declines were not steep, the sharp drop in liquidity reflects investor caution and reluctance,” ACB Securities noted in a report.

Most securities firms consider the market to be in a natural consolidation phase after a prolonged rally that broke multiple records.

Over the past five months, the index gained 37% without any correction larger than 4.5% since the steep drop triggered by tariff news in early April.

Many investors who took profits remain hesitant to return as the market lacks fresh catalysts related to reclassification or third-quarter earnings. As a result, range-bound trading with frequent reversals and closes near the reference point may continue this week.

Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) analysts believe the Vn-Index is searching for momentum and rebalancing supply and demand, making a 30-point sideways band likely.

Yuanta Vietnam shares the same view, forecasting an initial rebound early this week but sideways moves afterward unless the index breaks the nearest resistance at 1,686.

ASEAN Securities also pointed to technical analysis that places resistance between 1,670 and 1,680, 10–20 points above the current level.

With a more cautious stance, some firms do not rule out a sharper correction given multiple risks. SSI expects such a correction could occur in late September due to mounting exchange rate pressure, a lackluster third-quarter earnings season, and profit-taking after a strong rally.

ACBS emphasized that if selling pressure persists, the Vn-Index could fall toward 1,600, a critical psychological level for setting short-term trends. Should strong and stable bottom-fishing demand emerge there, the market could reestablish an upward trajectory.

Looking to the medium term (two to six months), most analysts maintain that the overall trend remains upward. The current low-liquidity stalemate is seen as an accumulation, laying the groundwork for the next rally.

According to Tien Phong Securities, the key condition for entering a new bullish wave is that the index must hold above 1,600 in the coming sessions.

In the meantime, many brokerages recommend that investors continue to hold stocks showing sideways patterns without heavy selling pressure. For those with high cash positions, cautious new entries are advised, avoiding chasing prices during sharp upswings.

“Investors can maintain a high proportion of equities in their portfolios, but should avoid further increases at this stage. If liquidity continues to fall, it is better to wait for deeper corrections before buying,” Yuanta Vietnam analysts advised.