VN-Index poised for historic 2,000-point mark in 2026: Experts
This period is widely seen as a turning point for a new cycle driven by macro stability, policy reform, public investment, market upgrading and stronger listed firms.
THE HANOI TIMES — Vietnam’s stock market is expected to carry its strong momentum into 2026, with multiple securities firms projecting the VN-Index could break past the historic 2,000-point threshold, supported by earnings growth, policy reforms and rising foreign interest.
Investors at a securities firm in Hanoi. Photo: Pham Hung/The Hanoi Times
The bullish outlook follows a decisive breakout in 2025, widely seen as a turning point tied to Vietnam’s market upgrade prospects. After an April shock triggered by new US import tariffs, including a 20% rate on Vietnamese goods, the market rebounded sharply, climbing to nearly 1,800 points on surging liquidity.
Analysts attributed the rally not only to expectations of an official market upgrade but also by improving corporate fundamentals, as listed firms posted stronger earnings and healthier balance sheets.
Many securities firms see the market entering a new growth cycle underpinned by macroeconomic stability, policy reforms, accelerated public investment and the increasing maturity of the corporate sector, creating conditions for the VN-Index to move beyond the 2,000-point threshold.
According to Nguyen Tien Dung, Head of Industry and Equity Research at MB Securities, market sentiment is likely to remain constructive in the near term, supported by the traditional “good news at the start of the year” effect and expectations that Vietnam’s stock market could officially be upgraded following the FTSE interim review in March.
A key catalyst remains FTSE Russell’s decision to place Vietnam on its Secondary Emerging Market Watch List from September, a move that could attract billions of US dollars in foreign capital and accelerate Vietnam’s integration into global financial markets, he told local media.
"Together with a wave of large initial public offerings, solid profit growth and attractive medium-term valuations, the development is strengthening the appeal of Vietnam’s capital market," Dung added.
Meanwhile, VNDirect believes 2026 will mark a breakthrough year for the country’s stock market.
“An official FTSE upgrade in September 2026, alongside major infrastructure improvements and deep reforms, is expected to bring Vietnam closer to more developed regional markets,” the brokerage said, adding that these factors should boost confidence and draw in larger institutional investors.
Supported by resilient domestic growth and positive earnings forecasts, VNDirect projects the VN-Index could close 2026 at 2,099 points, up 27.5%.
Sharing this view, SSI Research said the market has completed its bottoming phase and is entering a new and more dynamic chapter from 2026. “This marks a shift into a post-upgrade breakout phase, where policy reform and global integration converge to open a more sustainable growth cycle,” SSI Research noted.
Market appeal is reinforced by an attractive price-to-earnings ratio of about 14.5 times, while listed companies’ profit growth outlook stands at a robust 14.5%.
In 2026, as the forward P/E is expected to ease to around 12.7 times, well below the 10-year average of 14 times, SSI Research expects the VN-Index to reach roughly 1,920 points.
Similarly, Vietcap forecasts the VN-Index could approach 2,033 points in 2026, up about 17% from 2025. The key driver is strong earnings surge among listed companies, with EPS growth projected at up to 19%.
This would mark the second consecutive year of double-digit profit growth, signaling a more durable recovery in corporate activity. Even at that level, Vietcap noted that the market’s projected P/E would stand at just 14.4 times, suggesting valuations remain grounded in fundamentals rather than short-term exuberance.
Macroeconomic stability lays foundation for growth
Petri Deryng, founder of Pyn Elite Fund, noted in his December letter to investors that the fund’s long-term target of 3,200 points for the VN-Index within the next three years is achievable.
The projection is based on average corporate earnings growth of 18–20% per year, which would place the market’s P/E at a reasonable level of around 16 by 2028, compared with current undervaluation, he added.
According to Pyn Elite Fund, the strongest driver of Vietnam’s next market leap lies in its macroeconomic foundation. The government’s ambition to sustain GDP growth above 10% annually for the next 10 to 15 years could lift both economic scale and living standards to a higher level. "This direction is no longer rhetorical, but increasingly reflected in concrete administrative reforms that are unlocking large pools of economic resources."
Pyn Elite Fund also highlighted progress in capital market modernization. The FTSE upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market status in October is seen as a critical milestone, while further reforms such as the rollout of a new trading system, removal of prefunding requirements and implementation of a central counterparty clearing model could pave the way for a future MSCI upgrade.
Meanwhile, Nguyen Thanh Trung, Chief Executive Officer of FinSuccess, said 2026 is widely expected to be a year of positive market performance, with banking, retail and energy among the sectors drawing the most attention.
However, he cautioned that market leadership can shift during different phases and actual movements do not always follow initial forecasts, requiring investors to remain flexible and closely monitor developments.
Momentum in early 2026 trading has already reflected growing optimism. By the close of Wednesday’s session on January 8, the VN-Index extended its rally to a sixth consecutive gain, setting a new record at 1,861 points, up 45 points or 2.49% from the previous session.
Market liquidity improved sharply, with matched trading volume exceeding one billion shares, equivalent to VND32.4 trillion (US$1.32 billion), up 36% from the average of the past 10 sessions.
Large-cap stocks dominated activity, with trading value reaching VND22 trillion (US$898 million), accounting for nearly 70% of total market liquidity. Foreign investors returned to net buying after two early-year sell-offs, purchasing VND4.55 trillion (US$186 million) worth of shares while selling about VND4 trillion (US$163 million).
