What are the main reasons behind the two high-level visits from the both Russia and the US, especially at the same time?That the two defense ministers from Russia and the US visit at the same time is no coincidence. Their simultaneous visits are an example of Vietnam’s policy to “diversify and multilateralize” relations with major powers.
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer
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Presidents Donald Trump and Tran Dai Quang declared in their Joint Statement issued in November last year that they welcomed the early visit of the US Secretary of Defense. James Mattis’ visit to Indonesia and Vietnam is significant because he is likely to return to Asia in May-June to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore and pay a later visit to China. This is a significant commitment.
The main reason for Secretary Mattis’ visit is to explain the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS) and the US National Defense Strategy (NDS) that highlight the importance of co-operating with regional partners to advance a stable regional order. Secretary Mattis will offer suggestions as to how the US and Vietnam can develop defense cooperation, particularly maritime security.
What are the major topics for discussion between the Vietnamese Minister of Defense and his US counterpart this time?
The defense co-operation between the US and Vietnam has been set in three documents: Memorandum of Understanding on Advancing Bilateral Defense Cooperation in 2011, the 2015 Joint Vision Statement on Defense Co-operation, and the Plan of Action to implement these two statements in 2018-2020. There will be no need for Defense Secretary James Mattis and Defence Minister Ngo Xuan Lich to discuss these agreements in detail.
Secretary Mattis and General Ngo Xuan Lich will likely focus their discussions on maritime security in the East Sea, nuclear proliferation in North Korea, and China. On maritime security, Secretary Mattis will likely raise how both sides can further advance co-operation, such as by more frequent port calls by the US Navy after the visit of the first US aircraft carrier to Vietnam this year. The issue of future co-operation in co-production of defense technology, as mentioned in the 2015 Joint Vision Statement, could also be raised.
And what will be the major themes of the discussions with the Russian Minister of Defense?
General Shoigu is likely to discuss with General Ngo Xuan Lich the effectiveness of past defense co-operation, including fulfilling agreements already signed, co-operation at international forums, further arms sales, and co-operation in military training.
Additionally, the two sides will likely talk about continued Russian support for the maintenance and servicing of military platforms and weapons already provided to Vietnam, co-production of military weapon systems such as missiles, professional military education and training, and possible new weapons sales.
What are the US’s and Russia’s expectations on Vietnam through these trips?
Secretary Mattis will brief General Lich on the main contents of the US NSS and US NDS. Mattis will discuss with Lich the extent to which Vietnam will partner with the US to create a networked security architecture that contributes to regional stability and ensures freedom of access to the East Sea. Specifically, Mattis will raise how to step up co-operation in sharing intelligence on regional security developments and cyber issues. Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu will offer further military-technical co-operation to Vietnam.
