HSBC revises up Vietnam GDP growth forecast to 7.9% in 2025

THE HANOI TIMES — HSBC has raised its full-year GDP growth forecast for Vietnam from 6.6% to 7.9% following the country’s strongest third-quarter growth in Southeast Asia.

In its latest report, HSBC revised Vietnam’s 2025 growth outlook after the General Statistics Office announced that GDP expanded by 8.23% in the third quarter, making Vietnam the fastest-growing economy in ASEAN.

The UK-based bank described the result as “surprising” noting that it exceeded market expectations of 7.2%. With the revision, HSBC now holds the highest growth forecast among international institutions, approaching the government’s target of over 8%.

Last month, several financial organizations also adjusted their projections upward. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) raised their forecasts to 6.7% and 7.5% while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) maintained expectations of 6.5% and 6.6%.

According to HSBC, while exports from other ASEAN countries to the US saw a slight decline, Vietnam’s exports continued to post double-digit growth. Notably, the country’s trade surplus in the third quarter doubled compared to the first half of the year thanks to stronger surpluses with non-US partners.

Domestic conditions also remained solid with retail sales improving significantly and tourism leading the regional recovery. Large-scale infrastructure projects further boosted construction activity. “There is still room for higher growth if public investment disbursement accelerates,” the report noted.

At the Vietnam Private Economic Landscape (ViPEL) Forum on October 10, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said that with the current growth momentum, Vietnam could achieve its GDP growth target of over 8% this year if no major disruptions occur.

Several business studies show rising optimism among enterprises for the final quarter. The General Statistics Office’s survey of manufacturing, processing and construction firms found that 40.8% expect improved operations in the fourth quarter compared to 33.6% in the third. Meanwhile, 38% anticipate higher order volumes, up from 31.1% previously.

The Business Confidence Index (BCI) from the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham) rose to 66.5 points in the third quarter, the highest in three years. EuroCham's Chairman Bruno Jaspaert said that maintaining stable confidence in an uncertain world is “remarkable.”

In its updated report, HSBC slightly increased its inflation forecast to 3.3% for this year and 3.5% for 2026 assessing that inflation remains under control. However, it warned that trade volatility remains the biggest risk to growth. For 2026, HSBC also lifted its GDP forecast from 5.8% to 6.7%.