Vietnam e-commerce forecast to reach US$70 billion by 2030

THE HANOI TIMES — Vietnam’s e-commerce market surpassed $30 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$50 billion-US$70 billion by 2030, driven by modern shopping habits, digitalization and expanding logistics infrastructure, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

The report identifies e-commerce as a core distribution channel and the fastest-growing segment of the domestic trade system. The market size is estimated at $32 billion, up 22% from the previous year and accounting for roughly 12% of total retail sales of goods and services. Vietnam is currently among Southeast Asia’s leading markets in terms of growth momentum.

The ministry cited internet penetration of over 80% and a large base of regular online shoppers as key drivers, alongside the widespread adoption of e-wallets, digital banking and online payment platforms, and the steady expansion of logistics and express delivery ecosystems.

Major e-commerce platforms, such as Shopee, Lazada, Tiki and TikTok Shop, continue to dominate the market.

Competition among platforms is increasingly linked to service expansion, aggressive promotions and fee adjustments to comply with new regulatory requirements. Shopee and Lazada have reduced average fees by about 6.5%-15% since early 2025.

At the same time, social commerce and livestream shopping have gained traction, particularly on TikTok Shop, becoming fast-moving sales channels for fashion, cosmetics and fast-moving consumer goods.

Domestic enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are participating more deeply in digital distribution channels.

Supportive policies, such as Decree No. 80, which allows a support of up to 50% of the cost of maintaining seller accounts on e-commerce platforms, capped at VND50 million (US$2,000) per year for up to two years, have helped small firms, household businesses, and cooperatives expand their online presence.

In the medium term, the report forecasts total retail sales of goods and services to grow by 10%-12% annually, reaching an estimated $450 billion by 2030.

Within this context, e-commerce is expected to sustain growth of around 20% per year, lifting online retail sales to about $70 billion. Vietnam would rank third in Southeast Asia, behind Thailand and Indonesia.

Long-term momentum continues to come from a large population with younger cohorts such as Gen Z and Gen Y playing a central role and readily embracing new shopping trends.

In parallel, e-commerce platforms and businesses are adopting technology to deepen digitalisation and cut operating costs, making products more accessible to consumers.

Logistics infrastructure, including smart warehouses and satellite fulfillment centers, is helping reduce delivery times and transportation costs.

The Domestic Market Management and Development Authority expects shopping behavior from 2026 to 2030 to be shaped by two forces: digitalization and population aging, with younger consumers favoring speed, convenience, personalization and sustainable consumption, while older consumers prioritize safety, reliability, customer service and healthcare products.

“This diversity requires businesses and distribution systems to transform decisively by building flexible, multi-layered and customer-centric models. If leveraged effectively, Vietnam has the opportunity not only to expand its domestic market but also to develop a modern, sustainable and inclusive trade ecosystem,” the report notes.

Alongside strong prospects, the report highlights several challenges, including consumer protection, logistics costs and security vulnerabilities at some smaller payment gateways.

To support sustainable growth, Vietnam needs continued investment in digital infrastructure, electronic payments and smart logistics, while strengthening support for small enterprises, cooperatives and rural household businesses to access e-commerce platforms and broaden market participation.