Vietnam's 2025 e-commerce growth to hit 25.5%, driven by year-end shopping season

THE HANOI TIMES — The Vietnamese e-commerce market is projected to grow 25.5% in 2025 as consumption peaks during the year-end shopping season, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

The forecast is higher than the initial growth target of 20%-22% for this year. In January-August, the sector rose 27%, beating the projection by seven percentage points.

During July-September, e-commerce increased 27.7% year-on-year, nearly 6% higher than the original scenario. The ministry expects momentum to accelerate further in the fourth quarter, reaching 33.7%.

December alone could post a record 35%, driven by year-end consumption campaigns.

These projections reflect past performance and seasonal demand.

According to YouNet ECI, the four leading platforms, including Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada, and Tiki, generated a total value of market sales value of VND222 trillion (US$8.4 billion) in the first half of 2025, up 23% year-on-year, with more than 1.9 billion items sold by nearly 580,000 sellers.

YouNet ECI and YouNet Media forecast that Vietnam’s e-commerce market will sustain a compound annual growth of 35% through 2028, fueled by higher spending per order and the rise of “shoppertainment,” which combines shopping with entertainment.

According to the ministry, despite global challenges, Vietnam’s e-commerce has maintained steady annual growth of 18%-25%. The B2C market expanded 25% in 2023, reaching $20.5 billion, and surpassed $25 billion in 2024.

The ministry estimated that e-commerce accounts for two-thirds of the country’s digital economy value, placing Vietnam among the world’s 10 fastest-growing e-commerce markets.

On average, Vietnamese consumers shop online four times a month, underscoring the vast potential of a nearly 100-million-strong market alongside regional giants like China and India.