Vietnam tipped as Asia’s growth champion in 2025: HSBC
For 2026, HSBC forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 6.7%, supported by faster public investment and the resilience of exports.
THE HANOI TIMES — Vietnam is likely to become Asia’s fastest-growing economy with GDP growth topping 8% in 2025, according to HSBC's newly released report.
Hanoi from above. Photo: Pham Hung/The Hanoi Times
Data from the National Statistics Office show Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 8.02% in 2025, the second-highest rate over the 2011–2025 period and slightly above the UK-based bank’s earlier forecast of 7.9%.
“This result easily places Vietnam at the top of the 2025 growth rankings, not only within ASEAN but across Asia,” said the report.
HSBC highlighted trade as a key driver, with total trade reaching a record $928 billion, up 18% from 2024, despite repeated tariff shocks. The surge was attributed to accelerated frontloading of export orders and Vietnam’s ability to offer products that fit global demand.
The artificial intelligence boom has also lifted electronics exports, accounting for 35% of total export value last year, up from 5% in 2010. By contrast, the share of textiles and footwear fell from a peak of 30% in 2005 to over 10%.
Beyond product trends, Vietnam has expanded exports to the US despite tariff concerns. Even with a 20% reciprocal tariff rate, the country has continued to gain market share in products such as phones, textiles and footwear.
HSBC also noted that domestic fundamentals remain solid, providing strong support for the economy. Personal consumption rose 8% on the back of a large consumer base while investment growth accelerated to nearly 9%. Tourism rebounded sharply, with visitor numbers reaching 120% of 2019 levels and generating $40 billion in revenue, equivalent to 7% of GDP.
For 2026, HSBC forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 6.7%, supported by faster public investment and the resilience of exports.
The projection is among the most optimistic from international institutions, second only to UOB, which last week raised its 2026 growth forecast from 7% to 7.5%.
Echoing UOB’s caution that export orders could weaken, HSBC said Vietnam is not immune to the risk of a global trade slowdown. However, the bank added that well-matched products and expanding market share in the United States could help the economy weather part of the pressure.
Regarding the government’s target of GDP growth of 10% or higher, HSBC said achieving it would require a major boost, driven by exceptionally strong trade performance, sizable investment and robust consumption.
