2016 is the first year Vietnam experienced the export of fruits and vegetables reached 2.45 billion USD, exceeding the crude oil export of 2.4 billion USD and rice of 2.16 billion USD. In the first 9 months of 2017, Vietnam’s export of fruits and vegetables reached 2.62 billion USD, which is higher than crude oil export of 2.2 billion USD and rice of 2.04 billion USD.
Vietnam's mango in Japan's market.
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These statistics show a high demand for fruits and vegetables in international markets, for which Vietnam still have high potential for development and opening new doors for farmers in highlands and rural areas to increase income. It is also part of the government’s effort, as high value agricultural production is aimed to help farmers in these areas to improve living standard.
Currently, fruits and vegetables are not considered as national products, however, with the high value in exports from these products, notably higher than crude oil and rice exports, it has raised the question is whether it is a short term or long term solution, and an opportunity for Vietnam in globalization context. In 2005, Vietnam’s export of fruits and vegetables were only 235 million USD, equivalent to 17% of rice export of 1.4 billion USD, 9% of fisheries export of 2.73 billion USD and 3% of crude oil export of 7.3 billion USD. In 2010, the export of fruits and vegetables increased to 460 million USD and by 2016 reached 2.457 billion USD. The average growth rate of fruits and vegetables export from 2011 to 2016 is 32% per year.
For rice as a national product, in 2011 the export value was 3.66 billion USD, and reached its peak in 2012 with 3.674 billion USD, after that is the declining trend with 2.92 billion USD in 2013; 2.93 billion USD in 2014; 2.8 billion USD in 2015 and 2.16 billion USD in 2016. As such, after 5 years, the value of rice export has reduced 1.5 billion USD, and the average value of rice export in 2011 – 2016 was 3.02 billion USD per year.
For fisheries products, in which include two national products of catfish and shrimp, the export value in 2011 was 6.11 billion USD, and reach its peak of 7.82 billion USD in 2014, decreased to 6.57 billion USD in 2015 and 7.05 billion USD in 2016. As such, after 5 years, the export value of fisheries products have increased 940 million USD, with the average growth rate of export is nearly 4% per year, and the average export value in period 2011- 2016 is 6.72 billion USD per year.
Crude oil export in 2011 was 7.2 billion USD, in 2012 was 8.2 billion USD and after that is the declining trend: 7.2 billion USD in 2013 and 2014; 3.8 billion USD in 2015 and 2.4 billion USD in 2016. After 5 years, the export value of crude oil decreased 4.8 billion USD, with the export value of crude oil in period 2011 – 2016 is 6.02 billion USD per year.
With these statistics, for period 2017 – 2025, it is expected that rice export will only be around 3 – 4 billion USD with declining trend. Wile with the growing of fisheries products, but without new measures, by 2025 the export value will be 11 billion USD. For crude oil, the trend is slow increase and declining, as such, by 2025, it is estimated to be from 4 – 5 billion USD in export.
In this context, result from vegetables and fruits are welcoming sign with the growth rate from 2011 – 2016 of 32% per year. Major markets for Vietnam’s products are the U.S, Japan, Korea, China, India, Australia, New Zealand, UAE, and European Union. Assuming the growth rate for these products in 2017 – 2020 with 25% per year and 2011 – 2015 of 18% per year, so the export value by 2020 will be 6 billion USD and by 2025 will be 13 billion USD, which is higher than the estimated export value for fisheries of 11 billion USD, and a lot higher than rice and crude oil export.
