Mar 19, 2021 / 14:15

Myanmar: Part 3 - What would and might be next in Myanmar?

In recent time in Southeast Asia, military coups overthrowing civilian administrations have had been only seen in Thailand and Myanmar. Both are ASEAN members. There were strong oppositions, crashes between protesters and security forces inside these countries. There were deaths to claim in Myanmar.

In Thailand now, the governing administration has had a civilian look but political and social tensions have still remained there. The man who initiated the coup d’état some years ago is still in power thanks to a new constitution which always secures the dominant and decisive rolls of the military. 

 Myanmar coup tightens security in Hlaingthaya district, Yangon - the largest city of Myanmar on March 14

The aftermath of the coup remains one of the biggest and most difficult problems which are still to be solved in this country. But the world outside Thailand has been gradually forgetting the linkage between the military coup and the present rulers. 

Unlike Myanmar now. Military coups happened both in Thailand and Myanmar but the consequences and impacts aren't the same. Myanmar hasn't a very influential power factor named the king. Myanmar hasn't the same good and strategic relationships with the US, EU and other Western countries like Thailand. 

Having come to power again, Myanmar's military is now certainly aware of lections which it had learnt from the just ended process of democratization in Myanmar and from the just ended cohabitation with a civilian government. 

This time, it would definitely ensure its control on any later democratically elected government and it wouldn't let the NLD and Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi come to power again in Myanmar. Sure, Myanmar's military well knows that in today's world, the military rule couldn't last long or forever in Myanmar and it has no other alternative as to quickly facilitate the return of popular democracy. 

It has to satisfy the opposition inside the country and to smooth the temper of many partners which are very important to Myanmar's future outside the country. 

In this aspect, Myanmar's military let the history be repeated by having had staged its coup against Myanmar's civilian government but wouldn't repeat history with again allowing another civilian administration like the one it have had just removed from power to be elected at sometimes later on. 

Obviously, Myanmar's present power holders tend and favor to adopt power and governing model Thailand's military applied in Thailand after its coup d’état. There might be new election or even new constitution in Myanmar but the real power holder will remain the same just like to be seen in Thailand. 

But it would be for Myanmar's military much more difficult to succeed with this model than it was for Thailand's military in the last years. At the moment, Myanmar's new rulers seem to have no intentions to talk with the opposition and to care about increased pressures and sanctions by the US, EU and the West.  

But surely not for long because sooner or later, Myanmar's military must let this country returning to popular democracy through talking with the opposition, allowing democratic elections and improving its relations with the West. 

Good relations with only China or partners in the region wouldn't be enough for Myanmar to prosper in the future.

Mynanmar: Part 1 - Does history repeat?

Mynanmar: Part 2 - The dilemma of the US, China and ASEAN

Disclaimer: The views expressed by Ambassador Tran Duc Mau are of his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Hanoitimes.

TAG: Myanmar