Vn-Index forecast to break 1,800 points by year-end
Many forecasts were upgraded after a four-month rally, particularly when the index crossed 1,600 points mid-month.
THE HANOI TIMES — Several funds and brokerages now expect Vietnam's benchmark VN-Index to reach 1,800 points by year-end or by mid-next year, with some placing an upbeat target in the range of 1,850 to 1,900.
Investors at a securities company in Hanoi. Photo: Pham Hung/The Hanoi Times
Early this year, many analysts and securities firms saw the 1,500-point threshold as the best-case scenario, about 18% higher than the level at the end of last December.
Forecasts have been optimistic after a four-month rally, especially once the index moved past 1,600-point level in mid-August.
In a late-July note, Petri Deryng of PYN Elite Fund said that a move to 1,800 points by Christmas 2025 is within reach, while cautioning that domestic profit-taking could spark brief pullbacks.
He cited progress on the US–Vietnam tariff discussions, government measures to support growth, and clearer prospects for a market-status upgrade.
The specialist also expected gains to be supported by low valuations, constructive investor sentiment, and stable fundamentals.
Echoing Petri’s view, VNDirect Securities projected that the benchmark may hit the range of 1,850-1,900 points in the next 9-12 months.
The brokerage reasoned by citing potential market reclassification, solid corporate earnings growth, and the chance of easier policy from the Federal Reserve.
In a recent market analysis, An Binh Securities expected the VN-Index to reach 1,792-1,864 points in the medium term, far above its early-year forecast of 1,408-1,435 points.
From current levels, the brokerage saw roughly 200 points of upside, or about 14%, supported by steady inflows, occasional surges in liquidity, and quick institutional dip-buying during volatile sessions.
The company also warned that a short-term pullback in August is likely before the uptrend resumes, framing dips as entry points and a chance to rotate portfolios.
SSI Research also noted the risk of short swings due to profit-taking and elevated margin lending in July, but maintained a long-term target of 1,750-1,800 points by 2026.
SSI Securities' strategy team pointed to a rebound in listed-company earnings, with net profit attributable to parent shareholders expected to rise 13.8% year-on-year in 2025.
The government’s goal is to move Vietnam from frontier to emerging market status by 2025.
In a meeting with FTSE Russell in mid-July, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang said that Vietnam is committed to capital market reforms, improving market operations, and gradually meeting the criteria for an upgrade.
He expressed confidence that continued reforms and support from international partners could facilitate Vietnam’s stock market to meet upgrade standards and become a more attractive regional investment destination.
“A healthy, well-functioning market is vital for drawing long-term capital, and moving from frontier to emerging status would help build a fair, transparent, and efficient marketplace,” Thang added.
A market upgrade is widely viewed as a strong catalyst for Vietnam’s capital market because it improves access to foreign investors. It would lift market capitalization and deepen liquidity to levels comparable with peer economies.
According to the World Bank, the market upgrade could attract about US$25 billion in new foreign investment into Vietnam by 2030.
