Hanoi apartment market set for steady growth as suburban supply reshapes demand
Hanoi’s primary apartment market is entering a more measured expansion phase, driven by growing supply in outlying areas and softer price movements, with infrastructure upgrades and end-user demand expected to anchor the primary apartment market through 2026.
THE HANOI TIMES — Hanoi’s primary apartment market is expected to maintain strong momentum in 2026, with new launches projected to exceed 2025 levels and reach 35,000-40,000 units, according to One Mount Group’s Market Research and Customer Insights Center.
The Tay Ho Tay-Diplomatic Corps area along Vo Chi Cong Avenue, situated north of central Hanoi near Nhat Tan Bridge and the West Lake. Photo: Pham Hung/The Hanoi Times
A defining trend next year will be the rise of Van Giang Commune in neighboring Hung Yen Province as the largest new supply hub. The area is forecast to deliver about 20,000-25,000 apartments, marking its first year as the metropolitan market’s leading source of new supply.
This shift reflects the rapid rollout of large township projects such as Vinhomes Ocean Park 2 and 3, Ecopark, Alluvia City and Sunshine Legend City, which continue to reshape Hanoi’s extended housing landscape and push development deeper into satellite zones.
Tran Minh Tien, Director of One Mount Group’s Market Research and Customer Insights Center, said Hanoi’s apartment market has entered a new phase marked by stable expansion and clearer growth drivers.
While both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are recovering, he said Hanoi is likely to expand at a steadier pace, with prices becoming more accessible to a wider buyer base.
Momentum strengthened in Q4/2025 as new apartment supply in Hanoi reached about 15,500 units, up 85% quarter-on-quarter and 26% year-on-year. The market also set a record as 14 projects launched for the first time in a single quarter.
Supply continued to shift outward, with Van Giang Commune contributing roughly 9,400 units, or 61% of quarterly launches. The figure recorded an 8.6-fold increase from the previous quarter.
The trend highlights the growing role of satellite locations in easing supply pressure within the capital.
For the full year 2025, Hanoi recorded apartment sales of around 34,500 units, an annual increase of 2%. High-end and luxury products drove demand, posting an average absorption rate of about 89%.
High-end units accounted for roughly 22,700 transactions, or 66% of total sales, mainly in eastern areas, while luxury units saw stronger absorption in northern and western zones, with about 11,800 units sold.
In terms of price, the average primary price in Hanoi during Q4/2025 stood at about VND86 million ($3,270) per square meter, flat quarter on quarter and up 13% year on year.
The slower pace reflected a rising share of suburban supply in areas such as Van Giang, Dan Phuong, Hoai Duc and Hoa Lac. By contrast, new projects in central locations continued to command premiums, averaging about VND124 million ($4,720) per square meter.
By comparison, Ho Chi Minh City rebounded strongly in late 2025 but saw sharper price movements.
New supply reached about 14,500 units in the fourth quarter, up 130% quarter on quarter and 2.7 times year on year, as major developers returned following progress on legal approvals.
Ho Chi Minh City recorded about 30,400 apartment transactions in 2025, 2.4 times higher than the previous year. Demand remained concentrated in central districts, where high-end and luxury products made up about 80% of sales.
Average primary prices climbed to VND103 million ($3,920) per square meter in the fourth quarter, driven by ultra-luxury launches that reset price benchmarks.
Looking ahead, One Mount Group expects Hanoi’s primary apartment market to follow a positive yet more balanced path in 2026, supported by expanding supply, improved satellite-area infrastructure and steady end-user demand rather than speculation.
